To identify the optimum turbine design based on performance and risk
Frazer-Nash was appointed to review a variety of wind farm designs to assess the commercial and engineering risk.
We identified nine criteria to assess the available designs, these were: price, expected power, installation cost, delivery time, noise generation, visual impact, warranty provision, survival speed and maintenance costs. Some of the criteria were objective; others subjective as even an objective choice could be subject to uncertainty; for example, on the amount of wind, errors in delivery time, or changes in price.
To deal with the variations in type of criterion we developed a variant of Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process. This technique simulates human cognitive behaviour by undertaking a series of pair-wise comparisons. Our novel, probabilistic method provided much improved insight over traditional single-point estimates, giving the client a picture of both the likely outcome, and the spread of likely results.
We were able to indentify the optimal turbine design for the developer and reduce the commercial risk for the investor.