Frazer-Nash Consultancy, in collaboration with Frontier Economics and BMG Research have conducted the final evaluation of the Future Flight Challenge (FFC) for UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
Future Flight Challenge is a 300 million GBP investment programme launched in 2019, which comprises 125 million GBP committed by the public sector under the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and 175 million GBP co-invested by industry. The programme is designed to build the aviation ecosystem needed to speed up the introduction of electric sub-regional aircraft, advanced air mobility vehicles and drones into the UK.
Our approach
A theory of change, a method that helps us to visually map how an intervention is expected to lead to a change, was developed in collaboration with the Future Flight Challenge to outline how the programme’s inputs and activities would generate outputs, outcomes, and impacts.
The theory of change was the cornerstone to our contribution analysis: an approach which is key to the definition of more complex operating environments with wide-ranging impacts such as the Future Flight Challenge.
A mixed-methods approach using both qualitative and quantitative data sources helped us to gain a more comprehensive overview of the Future Flight Challenge. Five key evidence sources that informed our analysis were as follows: (1) an industry survey of future flight sector organisations (181 responses), (2) five case studies based on 18 in-depth interviews with stakeholders, (3) FFC monitoring data, (4) other secondary sources, and (5) literature reviews.
Throughout the report, results from the baseline, interim impact, and final impact surveys are compared where possible to observe trends over time.
Key findings
Accelerated innovation: Advanced technologies like drones and electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) are a step closer brought closer to commercial viability through focused support and demonstrations. 71% of consortia members who were surveyed had reported an increase of the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of the technologies in their projects funded by the Challenge.
Stronger collaboration: The collaborative nature of the Future Flight Challenge was undoubtedly one of, if not the key positive that came out of the Challenge. The Future Flight Challenge united industry, government, and regulators, fostering partnerships and rapid knowledge sharing. Collaboration expanded across the wider industry and the UK, demonstrating a wider network effect driven by the Challenge.
Increased investment: The Challenge injected a significant boost in public and private research and development funding, although long-term investment remains a challenge for small medium enterprises. The Challenge leveraged 217 million GBP in industry co-investment, surpassing its initial target by 24%. Nearly half of survey respondents reported an increase in research and development spending due to their engagement with the Challenge.
The Future Flight Challenge injected a significant boost in funding for public and private research within the future flight sector, helping to create a strong foundation of innovators and small medium enterprises (SMEs). Now, in the era after the Challenge, SMEs which enjoyed a spell of rapid growth due to investment, are facing challenges to continue to prosper, although a recent call for proposals identified the need for small follow-ons to the Challenge which could provide further support for SMEs.
However, ongoing challenges need to be addressed to sustain progress, strengthen the UK's international position, and gain competitive advantages in the global future flight market. Regulatory delays, unclear commercial pathways, and limited physical and digital infrastructure still hinder full-scale deployment.
Moving forward:
To unlock the full potential of the UK’s wider future flight sector, we identified six key lessons learned:
- More focused investment in high-impact areas and integrated real-world demonstrations could accelerate progress toward operational and commercial readiness.
- Regulatory clarity and flexibility is essential, with stakeholders calling for frameworks that evolve alongside technological advancements.
- Greater data sharing, and clearer pathways for commercialisation are necessary to ensure sector-wide growth.
- Investment in critical infrastructure, including vertiports, charging stations, and improved airspace management, will be essential in enabling the next phase of growth in the UK’s future flight sector.
- Maintaining collaboration networks and preserving expertise gained through the Challenge will be critical for sustaining momentum.
- A government-led vision and strategic roadmap setting up a clear pathway towards the commercialisation and industrialisation of future flight technologies. This includes a renewed focus on the viability of novel future flight use cases, along with a more comprehensive understanding of the supply chain and economic benefit. These are key considerations to provide direction for the sector and attract further investment.
Liam Parker, the Senior Consultant in the Uncrewed Air Systems team, who led the work for Frazer-Nash said: “The Future Flight Challenge has enabled novel technology demonstrations along with increases in regulatory awareness of safe and assured flight operations, both of which have helped build the foundations of a thriving future flight industry in the UK. Looking ahead, it is imperative that we work together to develop a set of pathways that help to de-mystify the route towards in-service operation.”
“At Frazer-Nash, we pride ourselves on our systems thinking approach to problem solving, helping to develop, demonstrate and assure novel systems, enabling our customers to integrate their solutions into the wider system-of-systems environment. We will continue to use our breadth and depth of safety, integration and techno-economic expertise to support the new and novel technologies that will enable the third aviation revolution.”
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Image courtesy of UKRI.
