Frazer-Nash Rotating Machinery Centre experts will be sharing their expertise at conferences in September and October.
In addition to Greg Nelson, who will be presenting at SPE Offshore Europe, which runs from 7 to 10 September, David Munn, and Iain Palmer will be exploring modelling and probabilistic approaches to rotating machinery problems at events organised by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) and gas turbine membership association, ETN Global.
Senior Consultant Iain’s presentation, at the IMechE’s, ‘Enhancements in integrity calculations through probabilistics’, on 22 September will give an overview of probabilistic failure assessments for rotating machinery. Chaired by colleague, Engineering Manager, Mark Joyce, the one-day conference will bring together experts from a range of sectors to consider how probabilistic approaches can underpin risk-informed decisions.
Describing his presentation, Iain said:
“I’ll be exploring the motivations for using a probabilistic approach in your assessments of rotating machinery, and the kinds of problems they can be applied to, including failure risk in high-temperature rotating components. I’ll also be looking towards the future, where combining service and test experience could allow us to refine probabilistic models using Bayesian methods.”
Group Leader, David Munn will present at ETN Global’s 10th International Gas Turbines Conference (IGTC), a virtual event running from 11 to 15 October, which has the theme ‘The future of gas turbine technology’. Co-authored with colleagues from Frazer-Nash and Richard Green from Solar Turbines, David will consider ‘Gas turbine temperature uncertainty using Bayesian statistics’
“There has been a move towards condition-based lifing of industrial gas turbines over the past few years, to provide operators with the flexibility and uptime they require. One key input into these advanced lifing methods is component temperature distributions, with analytical models used to predict peak steady-state and transient temperatures during operation – but these models do not accurately represent turbine temperature variability, erring on the pessimistic side.
“I’ll be exploring an approach for systematically combining experts’ judgements with measurements when modelling temperature. Using thermal engineers’ expertise, and refining using Bayesian Inference can potentially expedite the process of thermal model matching, make it repeatable, and predict the value of measurement campaigns.”
Featuring five keynote sessions and nine technical sessions, the biennial IGTC aims to raise awareness of gas turbine and turbomachinery development needs from operators’ perspectives, with experts from across the globe taking part.
For further information on Enhancements in integrity calculations through probabilistics visit the IMechE website; and take a look at ETN global’s webpage to find out more about the International Gas Turbine Conference.