GDF (Geological Disposal Facility)
With cost estimates up to £200Bn, our client asked us to help them better understand the costs and cost uncertainties for what is one of the largest infrastructure projects in the UK.
Using a Bayesian network and information from the limited cases where this has been done globally, we built a flexible tool to provide cost predictions for the major segments of building the facility.
The approach we used delivers better understanding of cost and duration risk - through being evidence based - in less time than traditional methods. And achieves high levels of stakeholder engagement and support through the involvement of subject matter experts in its development.
Whenever a bespoke construction or investment decision is needed, this approach can be used to provide both a cost estimate and the uncertainty bounds of that estimate.
The video below shows how we have applied similar techniques to a different infrastructure project.